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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to gain from the other's positions."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."